College recruiting - not an exact science

As a college football junkie and a native Arkansan, I'm head-over-heels into the high school recruiting scene. I check all of the recruiting experts and their tweets, blogs, reports and columns. I consider Richard Davenport of the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, one of the best resources.
I'm not so sure about some of the other so-called, "experts."
Former Camden Fairview standout Dominique Reed will be coming out of Coffeyville Community College this year. The 6-3, 195-pound wide receiver is considered, by most folks, a sure-fire prospect. I consider myself a reliable source on this young man after watching him for three years in high school.
He's a bad dude.
With Arkansas' current situation at receiver, I would think Reed would be a high priority. Then again, he's had some off-the-field issues at Coffeyville during his career. Coach Bret Bielema has proven time-and-time again, he doesn't waste a lot of time with trouble-makers, trouble-finders or trouble-followers. If you're trouble, Bielema ain't interested.
I don't know, first hand, of any of Reed's transgressions, if he has any. But, I felt confident Arkansas was recruiting him when I checked the ESPN recruiting page and saw the Razorbacks not only had offered him a scholarship but he went to Fayetteville for an official visit on Nov. 14.
According to ESPN, other schools to offer Reed included Arkansas State, Bowling Green, UCA, Florida, Louisiana-Lafayette, Minnesota, South Florida and Southern Mississippi. The list was last updated, according to the site, on Dec. 3.
Friday night, while covering the 22nd annual Camden Fairview Holiday Classic, Reed was in attendance. He walked past Camden News editor Kelly Blair, who posed the obvious question.
Reed would only say he's interested in Oklahoma, Louisville and Auburn.
We didn't have time to talk to the young man, who didn't seem real interested in revealing any secrets, anyway. It makes me wonder, though, is ESPN that far off base in its reporting? Or, did the kid just tell a little fib to throw the local media off the trail?
I guess the bottom line when dealing with teenagers, making life-altering decisions, you don't really know, probably because they don't really know.
Until they sign on the dotted line, whether it's ESPN or even Richard Davenport himself, don't believe anything you read when it comes to college recruiting.